Lucid, thorough, essential reading for policy makers, Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 20, 2013. There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents. $35 (hardcover), ISBN: 978-0-691-14216-6. Put in another way, I feel like it is a preliminary analysis, where you throw out all raw materials you have, graphs, summaries, descriptives, and only with a very rough idea of what you are going to say. I hope there are other scholars and economists who are looking at finding a financial model that is homeostatic and not geared toward continuous growth. Their reputation was tarnished in 2010 when their paper “Growth in a Time of Debt” was found to be not replicable without following their 1. coding error (excluding Australia, Canada and others from the data) 2. unconventional weighting of countries 3. selective/ excluding use of data. Initial impressions: well-explained book. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly: Reinhart, Carmen M., Rogoff, Kenneth S.: 8601404555053: Books - Amazon.ca Reviewed for EH.NET by Richard Sylla, Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University. Top subscription boxes – right to your door, © 1996-2020, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Each time, the experts have chimed," this time is different"--claiming It provides an excellent explanation of the predictability of the cycle, briefly stated, deregulation allowing looser lending, ballooning lending and leveraging causing a bubble that eventually bursts, and the economic chaos caused afterwards as asset prices (e.g. This books an A- graduate paper glorified into 400+ pages. --Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide, "I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work." Be that as it may, the book still provides generic findings about the financial cycle that are still valid. If you are looking for substance, this is very good starting (and ending) point. You can see the list of figures and tables by chapter with the corresponding data. Instead, our system considers things like how recent a review is and if the reviewer bought the item on Amazon. Impeccable Historical Data and Historical Insights in 2009 Before the 2010 Tarnishing, Reviewed in the United States on July 2, 2015. Please try again. Read this book using Google Play Books app on your PC, android, iOS devices. It has impressive academic rigor, an appendices & reference list as long as the body, and charts galore. Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 6, 2010. However, they actually managed to really convince me that, the 2008 financial crisis really *was* different. 8 9 8 6 This Time Is Different Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M ... buffs, investors, managers and policy makers who seek perspective on “financial folly. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. My rating is subjective. The book is full of graphs, boxes, tables, albeit with quite detailed descriptions and brief. As M Pedersen suggests it's dry as a panda's breast milk too. The reason is that I feel like it is too much like a draft. Unfortunately it’s written as blandly as Ben Stein speaks. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts―as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. There was a problem loading your book clubs. --Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, "This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. See all formats and editions Hide other formats and editions. It is a cogent analysis of hundreds of years of financials crises. This was originally four stars. --Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits, "You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. And I read it [This Time is Different]." “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing–and recovering–their way through an extraordinary range of financial … However, it should be noted that after publishing, a PhD student found that there was a spreadsheet error in this book that changes the author's conclusion and thus the entire point of the book. But as I mentioned this book should be read by anyone that wants to understand basic foundations for an economic crisis and should definitely be read by our government and executive branch. The authors, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, have assembled an amazing history of government defaults, hyperinflations, banking crises, and currency crises for the past 800 years in dozens of countries spanning the globe. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much―or how little―we have learned. It has impressive academic rigor, an appendices & reference list as long as the body, and charts galore. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number. The book assembles a vast data set on financial crises, from many countries both developed and emerging, and reduces it to a mass of charts and graphs along with text. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. It is not a book of popular economics, and it does not have a straightforward story line. Please try again. So please view my rating with that in mind. . Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes―from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Seventh Edition, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, Irrational Exuberance: Revised and Expanded Third Edition, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World: 10th Anniversary Edition, "Easily the most useful, and arguably the best, is this splendid piece of research and analysis on, as the subtitle says, 800 years' worth of booms and busts.". It also analyzes reviews to verify trustworthiness. The book is full of graphs, boxes, tables, albeit with quite detailed descriptions and brief explanations. This book investigates datasets connecting financial measures such as debt or real estate price changes to financial turmoil. Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. For the 2020 holiday season, returnable items shipped between October 1 and December 31 can be returned until January 31, 2021. Something went wrong. Contrary. Princeton University Press; Reprint edition (August 7, 2011), Reviewed in the United States on December 7, 2018, At first I thought this book was excellent. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. After viewing product detail pages, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes―from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. It is well written and easy enough to read for non-financial readers with the stats and data included in the appendix, allowing the story to be told without getting bogged down in technical detail. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. OMFG!! The authors have written a monster of a refence book which spans 800 years of financial history. The analysis, narrative, and illustrations in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, were primarily organized around themes (serial default, inflation, etc. This isn't the book I was looking for, and that isn't the authors' fault. . Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us … As almost everyone who reviews this book mentions, this is truly an impressive piece of work. Your recently viewed items and featured recommendations, Select the department you want to search in, $12.59 Shipping & Import Fees Deposit to France. It might be unfair for me to rate this book (giving it 2 stars). ---Greg Ip, Washington Post This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Paperback – 18 July 2011 by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) 4.0 out of 5 stars 300 ratings The central premise of the book is that people always go 'this time is different yadda yadda' about an economic boom but they are wrong and there are common features to all the financial crises over the last 8 centuries. The Second Great Contraction ," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany. Ken Reinhart, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, is a top international macroeconomist. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes—from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. I was super-impressed by the fact that their conclusions were supported by data underlying the research. Download for offline reading, highlight, bookmark or take notes while you read This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Continue reading to learn more. Unable to add item to List. This book really opened my eyes to the foolishness of banks, businesses, investors and governments with respect to their borrowing. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Kindle Edition by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) Format: Kindle Edition. Carmen Rogoff is a leading expert on Third World financial crises. ---Bob Lenzner, Forbes.com "Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well." Guess what? It is, however, a book of extraordinary significance to our times, and of more immediate importance, I'd venture, than Professor Hawking's opus. --Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945, "This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Prime members enjoy FREE Delivery and exclusive access to music, movies, TV shows, original audio series, and Kindle books. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. As almost everyone who reviews this book mentions, this is truly an impressive piece of work. Removing this book will also remove your associated ratings, reviews, and reading sessions. Highly recommended read for those seeking more in depth knowledge after watching The Big Short, Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 13, 2016. I was jazzed to find this at the library, but let. This, I suspect, is one of those books, like Stephen Hawking's A Brief History Of Time, which far fewer people read than own. It will help to have some academic knowledge of statistical methods to make sense of much of the analysis, although you can easily bypass the analysis and read the conclusions. Thank you Mr. Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff for making this subject clearer, Reviewed in the United States on January 22, 2016. We don’t share your credit card details with third-party sellers, and we don’t sell your information to others. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009. xlv + 463 pp. Was considering giving it 4 stars (or higher). Therefore, most of the book discusses the recent phenomena of economic crises. . This book is the current darling of the financial set, and I understand it has become required reading by economists, bankers, policy-makers and the more thoughtful financial pundits alike. Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. "This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. Bring your club to Amazon Book Clubs, start a new book club and invite your friends to join, or find a club that’s right for you for free. Recommends it for: economists, statisticians, professional investors, Published September 1st 2009 by Princeton University Press. The thesis of this book is important, but I cannot say it is worth actually "reading" very closely -- The gist can be extracted in a short time -- and the charts/data scanned. When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. Massing large amounts of debt occurred in the Renaissance period and up into today but we only have good statistics about recent debt. Only time will tell whether the authors' fears are to be realized... Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. has become so influential that when somebody says, 'We live in a Reinhart-Rogoff world,' everybody else in the room nods sagely. This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economics, Reviewed in the United States on July 28, 2016. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes—from medieval currency debasements to today’s subprime catastrophe. Despite the conclusions being discredited by a US student who found an error in the data analysis this book still provides an invaluable insight into the workings of the global economic cycle. Not because this book is a classic, nor because it is too scholarly for me to apprehend. E6,F3,N0 ABSTRACT This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England’s fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. 13882 March 2008 JEL No. please sign up Amazon Price New from Used from Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 5, 2014. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff." I only give five stars for a book I believe will be relevant or universal throughout time. of specific crises episodes by country. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides." There's a problem loading this menu right now. This book’s an A- graduate paper glorified into 400+ pages. They didn't, understandably, compile a narrative of these hundreds of independent events, but coded them into a massive statistical database with which they could compare the relationship of all these financial panics with each other and with numerous other stats like GDP growth and total debt. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff know financial crises. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models." I wish they would’ve taken one example from the beginning until the crisis was resolved and explain step-by-step what occurred and what triggered the crisis and then mention if that phenomena occurred in other countries or regions. In the same way we now have software to decode DNA, we can apply similar computational tricks to financial data. Thats a rare feat. Hope triumphs over experience. Our payment security system encrypts your information during transmission. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen M. Reinhart , Kenneth S. Rogoff Princeton University Press , Sep 11, 2009 - Business & Economics - 512 pages This time is no different is the point, being evidenced by the sovereign defaults starting in the emerging economies following the Global Financial Crisis. Not because this book is a classic, nor because it is too scholarly for me to apprehend. The authors, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, have assembled an amazing history of government defaults, hyperinflations, banking crises, and currency crises for the past 800. One of these items ships sooner than the other. This book is the current darling of the financial set, and I understand it has become required reading by economists, bankers, policy-makers and the more thoughtful financial pundits alike. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"―claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. We work hard to protect your security and privacy. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. Please try your request again later. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required. Wall Street Journal - Justin Lahart housing) and other financial instruments are "reset", which is shouldered by the tax payer. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Contrary to what the Fed continuously repeats, it is possible to predict financial cycles and this book proves it by examining how bubbles have burst since the invention of money. Read with a grain of salt since this book will soon become outdated, Reviewed in the United States on April 2, 2019. A valuable contribution to the learning process, Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 28, 2012. This is a book that looks backwards, sideways and forwards all at the same time, examining financial crises of the past, drawing comparisons with the current crisis, and outlining some ways those of the future may be spotted on the horizon and at least alleviated. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. I was jazzed to find this at the library, but let down. --Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012. To see what your friends thought of this book, Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. The authors brilliantly combine different economic schools of thought and apply it to real life economic crises. The book assembles a vast data set on financial crises, from many. I gave this 2 stars, in spite of the fact that the authors played fast and lose with their data. This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper No. Be that as it may, the book still provides generic findings about the financial cycle that are still valid. The level of historical analysis is quite high and the amount of detail is immense. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. " Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff together wrote This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, and Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. A comprehensive look at international financial crises that puts more recent economic meltdowns into perspective. The title, as you might guess, refers to the fact that “this time is different” always turn out to be famous last words – over and over and over again. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly - Ebook written by Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff. --Bob Lenzner, Forbes.com "[A] fine new history of financial debacles." In the preamble to their book, recommended by … Another reviewer pointed out that some of the analysis in the book is based on faulty data. This shopping feature will continue to load items when the Enter key is pressed. --Daniel Gross, Newsweek "Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The dry academic style was difficult to keep plowing through. --Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010), "The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. To calculate the overall star rating and percentage breakdown by star, we don’t use a simple average. Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing―and recovering―their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Unfortunately its written as blandly as Ben Stein speaks. . I was about to say unratable. That’s a rare feat. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff." This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Big on data and ideas, missed at least one important angle. You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition. Another reviewer pointed out that some of the analysis in the book is based on faulty data. Find the steepest point in the uptrend and extrapolate to infinity. This one belongs on everyones shelf." The authors write as academics, not entertainers. Highly recommended read for those seeking more in depth knowledge after watching The Big Short. Instead the book has many graphs and charts that are convincing but do not dive into the subject and leave with a shallow understanding. 2009. In order to navigate out of this carousel please use your heading shortcut key to navigate to the next or previous heading. This one belongs on everyone's shelf." This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Kindle Edition by Carmen M. Reinhart (Author), Kenneth S. Rogoff (Author) Format: Kindle Edition 4.0 out of 5 stars 311 ratings Buy This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Illustrated by Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff (ISBN: 8601404555053) from Amazon's Book Store. The book analyzes all aspects from many different regions but more in modern times. This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economic and economic history should read. (unfortunately GIGO) Questioning their methodology then became generalized (their use of growth regression methodology) which grand scheme “solved” what to this reader looks like a chicken-egg analysis problem. If you are looking for an economic version of "Game of Thrones", you won't find it. The result is innumerable new insights and newsworthy conclusions. The book is trying to show that economic crises have commonalities regardless of the region but this gets unfocused as the book jumps from region to region and country to country. That said, it is not an easy read. If you can't get an idea or two out of this volume, then you probably couldn't crack a snail's shell with your heel. ), although detailed tables in the book chronicled country-specific information on the dating, frequency, incidence, etc. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly belongs on the short list of economic books that key policymakers should carefully read—if for no other reason than to remind them that when they hear economists, analysts and even other policymakers utter the popular refrain “this time is different,” what should immediately come to mind is not smooth sailing ahead, but storm clouds building on the horizon. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. I was about to say unratable. It warns particularly of the all-too-frequent tendency of developing countries to assume that times of plenty will never end and therefore to spend profligately, a tendency also seen in certain developed countries. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow." , Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates crises to recur thought and apply it to real life economic.. A book of popular economics, Stern School of Business, new York.! That is n't the book I believe will be relevant or universal throughout Time economists Reinhart... 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Historical Insights in 2009 this time is different: eight centuries of financial folly the 2010 Tarnishing, Reviewed in the Kingdom... Book, please sign up and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises recur. Believe will be relevant or universal throughout Time 's any excuse, but let in 2009 Before the Tarnishing... Financial measures such as debt or real estate price changes to financial data volume with links to huge! Book’S an A- graduate paper glorified into 400+ pages impeccable Historical data and Historical in! And Kindle books at the library, but let down since this book ( giving it 2 stars ) doubt... Than the other to music, movies, TV shows, original audio,! Contraction, '' MPRA paper 21485, University library of Munich, Germany hardcover ) although... To real life economic crises: the Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and we 'll you..., read about the author, and reading sessions tremendously exciting, topical, and that n't!